Infectious Diseases

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Re: Infectious Diseases

Postby a2z » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:28 pm

Oops... Original Model Was Horribly Wrong
Original projections estimated TWO MILLION COVID-19 deaths in the USA. That has been revised to 20,000 by the guy who made the original projection. That's a drastic change. Currently Italy has over 8000 deaths and their population is about one-fifth of ours. If our death toll is proportionate, then we would expect at least 40,000 deaths in the USA assuming that the death toll in Italy doesn't increase too much more. The current death rate in Iran is much lower than the death rate in Italy. Extrapolating based on the Iran numbers and assuming that their numbers don't increase dramatically, we will see a total of less that 10,000 deaths. Currently slightly over 1000 people have died from COVID-19 in the USA.
MORE STATS:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
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Re: Infectious Diseases

Postby shadylady » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:37 am

Bill Gates outlines what he thinks world is learning about pandemics
Parts of the world went on red alert in January and parts did not. Guess which parts have the most sick people now?
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Re: Infectious Diseases

Postby shadylady » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:48 am

Bill Gates: Returning to normal life in April is not realistic
From what I hear Gates saying, it sounds like the end of May might be realistic, but does it come back strong in October and November? Gates seems to think that if the numbers get low enough by the end of May, that we could then snuff out the virus. Not sure how that works, but he seems to think it's possible.
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Re: Infectious Diseases

Postby wildrose » Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:54 am

A Deep Look into the Biology and Evolution of COVID-19
Lots of information. Keep in mind that in the past communities that practiced social distancing during an epidemic, recovered economically the most quickly.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov
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Re: Infectious Diseases

Postby pcslim » Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:14 am

Johnson & Johnson exec hopeful on possible coronavirus vaccine
The interviewer is an idiot, but the guest is highly intelligent. The interviewer's "technical" question is about as stupid as it gets. Despite the ineptitude of the interviewer this is an excellent interview since at least the airhead interviewer kept his pie hole shut most of the time.
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Re: Infectious Diseases

Postby cactuspete » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:06 am

Great posts to this thread! I especially enjoyed the last two. It's great to hear straight from the scientists on the front line working to understand the underlying biology responsible for this virus!
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