Re: Infectious Diseases
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:28 pm
Oops... Original Model Was Horribly Wrong
Original projections estimated TWO MILLION COVID-19 deaths in the USA. That has been revised to 20,000 by the guy who made the original projection. That's a drastic change. Currently Italy has over 8000 deaths and their population is about one-fifth of ours. If our death toll is proportionate, then we would expect at least 40,000 deaths in the USA assuming that the death toll in Italy doesn't increase too much more. The current death rate in Iran is much lower than the death rate in Italy. Extrapolating based on the Iran numbers and assuming that their numbers don't increase dramatically, we will see a total of less that 10,000 deaths. Currently slightly over 1000 people have died from COVID-19 in the USA.
MORE STATS:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Original projections estimated TWO MILLION COVID-19 deaths in the USA. That has been revised to 20,000 by the guy who made the original projection. That's a drastic change. Currently Italy has over 8000 deaths and their population is about one-fifth of ours. If our death toll is proportionate, then we would expect at least 40,000 deaths in the USA assuming that the death toll in Italy doesn't increase too much more. The current death rate in Iran is much lower than the death rate in Italy. Extrapolating based on the Iran numbers and assuming that their numbers don't increase dramatically, we will see a total of less that 10,000 deaths. Currently slightly over 1000 people have died from COVID-19 in the USA.
MORE STATS:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/